Measuring the Unmeasurable: Attribution in the Age of Dark Social

Introduction: Welcome to the Black Box

You know it’s happening: your content is being screenshotted, DMed, Slacked, WhatsApped, and shared in private groups, sparking conversations and influencing purchase decisions you’ll never see in your analytics. This is “dark social,” the untraceable side of digital word-of-mouth. For modern brands, especially in CPG and DTC, ignoring dark social means missing the true story behind your growth. But how do you measure what you can’t see?

What Is Dark Social (and Why Does It Matter)?

Dark social refers to all the ways people share content privately, through direct messages, private groups, text, email, or even screenshots. According to recent studies, up to 80% of content sharing now happens out of sight of traditional analytics tools. For marketers, this means your “viral” moment might never show up in your referral reports, even as your sales spike and your brand becomes the talk of the group chat.

Why Attribution Is Broken (and Why That’s Okay)

Classic attribution models, last click, first click, linear, were built for a world where every step left a digital breadcrumb. Today, privacy changes, walled gardens, and the rise of ephemeral messaging mean those breadcrumbs are disappearing. The result? Your analytics dashboard only tells half the story. But here’s the twist: just because you can’t measure everything doesn’t mean you can’t influence or learn from it.

New Rules for Measuring the Unmeasurable

1. Embrace Proxy Metrics
Track what you can see as a stand-in for what you can’t. Watch for sudden spikes in direct traffic, branded search, or “no referrer” sessions after a big content drop or campaign. These are often the fingerprints of dark social at work.

2. Lean Into Qualitative Signals
Ask your customers how they found you, literally. Use post-purchase surveys, “How did you hear about us?” forms, or even quick polls in your email flows. You’ll be surprised how often the answer is “a friend sent me this” or “saw it in a group chat.”

3. Build for Shareability
Make your content easy to copy, screenshot, or share in private channels. Include short, memorable URLs, saveable graphics, or even “forward this to a friend” CTAs. The more portable your content, the more likely it is to travel in the dark.

4. UTM Links and Share Codes (Where You Can)
For campaigns, use unique UTM parameters or discount codes tailored to specific platforms or even individual influencers. While not foolproof, these can help you spot spikes tied to specific sharing behaviors.

5. Monitor Community and Social Listening
Track mentions of your brand in forums, subreddits, Discords, and niche Facebook groups. Even if you can’t see every share, you’ll pick up on the conversations and sentiment that matter.

6. Accept, and Celebrate, the Mystery
Some of your best growth will come from places you can’t quantify. That’s a sign of real brand resonance. Build your reporting to account for the “unattributable” and focus on the big picture: are you seeing sustainable lifts in engagement, direct traffic, and word-of-mouth?

The Dark Social Attribution Mindset

The smartest brands aren’t paralyzed by what they can’t see; they become obsessed with creating content that’s worth sharing in the shadows. They invest in community, double down on trust, and design campaigns for the group chat, not just the feed. They treat “unmeasurable” as a challenge, not a cop-out.

Real-World Example: How CPG Brands Are Winning in the Dark

At The Apricots Media, we’ve seen supplement and beverage brands explode in sales after a single meme or UGC video started circulating in private wellness groups and DMs. The analytics showed a spike in direct traffic and branded search, but the real story came out in post-purchase surveys and customer interviews: “My running group shared your post,” “My friend sent me your TikTok.” The lesson? Track what you can, but listen even harder.

Conclusion & CTA

Dark social is here to stay, and that’s a good thing. It’s where trust is built, recommendations are made, and real brand love grows. Your job isn’t to control every share, but to create content and experiences people want to share, wherever those conversations happen.

Want to build a brand that thrives in the age of dark social?